Fourth down: go for it, kick or punt?

The question behind every fourth down

You have three options: try for the first down, kick a field goal if you are in range, or punt. The right question is not "which is safest?" but "which leaves my team the best chance to win the game?" That is win probability, and it is what Sideline uses to grade you.

The four things to check

1. Field position. Near the opponent's end, a failed attempt costs little because they start close to their own goal line, and a field goal may be in range. In your own end, a failure hands over an easy score. That is why punting deep in your own territory is usually right.
2. Yards to go. Fourth and 1 succeeds far more often than fourth and 7. Short yardage is where going for it earns the most over the kick or punt.
3. Score. Behind by more than a field goal, a field goal does not catch you up. Ahead late, a first down can end the game, while a punt gives the ball back.
4. Clock. The less time left, the more a punt costs you if you are behind. A trailing team with two minutes left rarely wins by punting without timeouts.

Why teams used to punt too much

Football analysts have argued for decades that coaches punt or kick when going for it would leave them better off. A well-known academic study by economist David Romer (published in the early 2000s) made that case from game data. Coaches have since gone for it more often, but the right call still depends on the details above, and no chart replaces them.

A quick way to think about it

• Past midfield and 3 yards or less to go: going for it is usually worth a serious look.
• In field goal range, ahead or tied early: the kick is often fine. Behind late: you may need the touchdown.
• Deep in your own end with a long way to go: punt.

These are rules of thumb, not exact lines. Sideline's grading shows you why a specific spot falls one way or the other.